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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers improving together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still