A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
